Picture a person standing close to the edge of a very high cliff, full of arrogance and bravado, with a huge and supposedly waterproof bag of valuable goods strapped to their back, and with a desire to prove to a watching crowd that they are prepared to lead the way and dive into what they believe is a beautiful, deep blue ocean below.
Many in the crowd, none of whom have ever looked over the precipice, are shouting and encouraging said individual to run, take the plunge and reap the perceived rewards and admiration that his / her “bravery” will bring.
Others, however, who have firm suspicions that not everything is as rosy as it seems or, like those around them, don’t actually know what really lies below, are urging the person to stop, fearful that they could end up killing themselves.
Now, fast forward several minutes and picture the same person teetering perilously on the edge, their arms swinging wildly as they try to keep their balance, having halted their run dramatically a split second before the jump. A very close call indeed, considering that large jagged rocks as opposed to water are what truly lie at the foot of the drop.
After managing to regain their composure, the individual turns to face the crowd. Clearly, making such a leap would have been suicide and an action from which, obviously, there would have been no return.
However, unbelievably, some members of the group, albeit much smaller in number (the majority of the pro-dive camp have now changed their mind now they are aware of the dire consequences), are continuing to shout encouragement, urging the protagonist to jump.
Even more surprising is that due to the individual’s own personal ego and an incomprehensible desire not to “lose face” in front of the remaining small baying mob, they are still considering diving off the edge.
By most people’s reckoning, it would be an utterly ridiculous and disastrous decision.
But then Brexit, as I will call the person in question, has never been intelligent.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC SUICIDE
Moving away from the aforementioned metaphorical scenario, and stepping back into the harsh reality of what leaving the European Union (EU) will really mean for Britain, the future would appear to be bleak indeed.
No matter how hardline Brexiteers like Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and their ilk try to manipulate the masses with lies and spin to further their own selfish political ambitions at the expense of the country, the fact is that Britain is going to be hugely worse off outside the EU than in.
Official figures (in other words, not those invented by the pro-Brexit lobby: remember the deceitful NHS “Brexit battle bus” lorry?) show that if Britain were to leave the EU without a deal, the UK economy could shrink by more than 10% after 15 years.
Even under Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposed leave agreement with the EU, the Treasury says the economy could be up to 3.9% smaller after the same time period, and independent experts say that could equate to about £100bn per year by 2030.
In fact, under every single Brexit scenario, figures show that the UK, which is currently the world’s fifth largest financial power, but could soon be overtaken by France, will be significantly worse off.
It will come as no surprise then that now they are aware of the devastating consequences, so many people who originally voted for Brexit now wish to remain.
Since the referendum result in 2016, the value of the pound has fallen dramatically against the Euro, major international corporations have left or are threatening to relocate their European headquarters away from British shores and set up shop in other EU countries (and that includes one in seven EU businesses), and with the latest predicted GDP figures indicating colossal financial damage in the future, huge numbers of jobs are at risk.
Of course, apart from the precise figures mentioned above, none of this is new to anyone who did their homework before the referendum.
Economics experts have long warned of such a scenario, yet a disillusioned and, dare I say in many cases, naive public decided in large numbers to ignore them and instead believe the xenophobic lies and fear churned out by the Farage, Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Daily Express, and Daily Mail brigade.
Anti-European bureaucracy was one factor which influenced many older voters. However, whilst the EU is admittedly far from perfect, it remains, along with the USA and China, one of the world’s three great economic trading markets, and, apart from trade ( in 2017, 44% of the UK’s exports were to the European Union, whilst the import figure from the EU was even higher at 53% ) also has many other benefits, including freedom of movement and work (more on that below), protection of workers’ and consumer rights, greater security, and, of course, continuing trade opportunities. Surely the potential loss of those factors alone are enough to show how much the UK is shooting itself in the foot.
Then, of course, we come to the red herring that is immigration:
“There’s no more space!” cried some, whilst others adopted a blatantly racist stance when putting their cross in the referendum box and called for the country to close its borders to all foreigners.
However, what the Brexiteer leaders and their sheep-like followers fail to mention are the huge number of expat Brits (or should we call ourselves immigrants, as UK residents tag expats from other countries on British soil) currently living in other EU countries, not to mention the massive financial contribution EU immigrants make to the UK.
According to figures compiled by the independent fact checking charity Full Fact, some 1.3 million British citizens were residing in other EU countries in 2017, with Spain by far the most popular destination.
In fact, the UK ranked fifth of all EU nations in terms of its citizens living in other EU countries.
At the same time, Full Fact points out that there were a recorded 3.8 million citizens from other EU countries living in the UK last year.
However, whilst the number of EU immigrants living in the UK was obviously greater, the research also showed that they were more likely to be in work than UK citizens. About 82% of working age EU citizens in the UK were in work, compared to around 76% of UK nationals.
Therefore, absurd claims that huge numbers of foreign EU workers are “sponging” off the system simply do not hold up. In fact, according to the figures, they make a highly significant and important contribution to the UK as a whole, and if they were to be deported or refused entry as a result of Brexit, it would almost certainly have a major impact on both the country’s economy and productivity (more on that below).
Still, why would the likes of hugely affluent politicians such as Farage, Johnson, Rees-Mogg or their favourite fear-spreading daily rags mention such statistics when they can use smoke and mirrors and immigration to scare the masses into voting for Brexit?
Of course, their own wealth means that they as individuals will remain buffered and safe from the devastating fallout that the British masses would inevitably face in the event of an EU exit.
Much as I am no fan of Theresa May, she was left with a poisoned chalice and almost impossible task by a man who, in my opinion, is the most cowardly Prime Minister in living memory.
Let’s never forget that had it not been for David Cameron‘s election pledge to offer the referendum in a bid to placate Eurosceptics on the far right of his own Conservative Party and stop them jumping ship to Farage’s UKIP, then the UK wouldn’t even be in this mess.
Since then, Cameron appears to have retreated out of the public eye and back to his life of privilege and affluence, while his bickering political party continue to tear themselves apart like spoilt brats and undermine their leader while millions of British and EU citizens are left to worry about their futures.
Meanwhile, the opposition Labour Party are merely waiting in the wings ready to pounce for their own political gain, but have so far done nothing of substance to counter the huge problem the country currently faces.
Crashing out of the EU without a deal would be devastating both socially and economically, and both the UK and EU are currently making contingencies for the very real prospect of such a scenario.
Furthermore, and make no mistake, claims by irresponsible hardline Brexiteers that Britain’s ability to strike new and independent trade deals with other “third” countries like China, Japan, the USA, India, etc, will allow the nation to remain a major global economic power, are not only empty and unsubstantiated, they are utterly misleading.
With the EU (by far our main trading partner) almost certainly set to adopt a hardball approach to import and export deals with the UK after a no deal Brexit, and other nations far more interested in maintaining good relations and trade deals with the EU due to its huge economic worth when compared with Britain, how can anyone in their right mind truly think that the UK will get a better deal with those countries on its own?
If anything, and knowing full well that the UK is depending more than ever on countries outside the European continent for trade, those same global superpowers will be in a far more powerful negotiating position with Britain at their mercy for survival.
In addition, and with the Government seeking to implement a minimum salary requirement of £30,000 on workers entering from EU countries as part of its no deal contingency plans (at the time of writing this exact figure is still being debated due to a backlash from the business community and migration watchdogs), combined with the large numbers of British citizens who will lose their jobs due to company relocation to other nations within the EU, the country would not only face far greater pressure on the welfare state, but there would be a monumental labour shortage in skilled and specialist positions which are currently filled by foreign workers whose wages fall below the aforementioned earnings bracket.
As part of those same contingencies, there is even talk of deploying thousands of troops to try and at least partly fill the gap in terms of certain essential services.
When you consider that many of those services, such as the National Health Service (NHS), are already hugely understaffed and underfunded, the pressure could well push them to breaking point.
As for British citizens living and working in other EU countries; at the moment, they can only guess about the consequences a no deal Brexit would bring.
During the last two and a half years, I’ve looked at both sides of the Brexit issue. I’ve actively sought out, read, listened to, and watched expert opinions from a wide variety of reliable sources, and have had more debates than I can remember.
On each occasion, I have supported my arguments with factual information and legitimate statistics (as I have done in this article if you click on the associated links), and have been consistent in my opinions and fears as to the negative consequences of Brexit, the majority of which are now sadly coming true.
In the process, and whilst some Brexit voters I have debated with have expressed European bureaucracy and retaining UK sovereignty as their reasons for wanting to leave the EU, not one has been able to show me convincing proof as to how the country would benefit or counter the fact that the nation would in fact be significantly worse off.
Moreover, large numbers of Brexiteers I have encountered seem to have based their arguments on other reasons, such as xenophobia or nostalgia, and/or have seemingly plucked information and statistics out of the sky to counter my arguments which they have then been unable to show me, substantiate or prove.
I have even heard people try and use the two world wars in support of their Brexit view.
With regard to that particular point, whilst I am extremely patriotic, grateful to, and proud of both my own relatives and all those who gave their lives for our freedom in the two conflicts, the second one finished more than 70 years ago, and the world and Europe have evolved beyond recognition since those days, both socially and economically.
Therefore to say, as some Brexiteers have, that Europe has turned against the very nation which “saved it” is utterly ridiculous. The United Kingdom has evolved with a more unified European continent, as well as being an influential member of the European Union, and it is the nation itself which is actually turning its back. The EU has negotiated and agreed a deal with the Prime Minister, and has even said the UK can remain without the need of a vote from other EU member states now that the full and harsh reality that a Brexit under any scenario will severely damage the economy has finally struck home.
Admittedly, the “remain” camp were arrogant and failed to campaign strongly enough in the lead up to the referendum in the false belief that Britain would never vote to leave the EU.
The campaign leaders also have to take responsibility for failing to address the very lies and misinformation which persuaded many to vote for Brexit in the first place.
Now, we find ourselves in a situation where politicians on both sides are fighting petty battles and manoeuvering for their own political benefit instead of addressing the impending disaster which is now less than 100 days away.
Theresa May has deliberately delayed the Parliamentary vote on her own agreement with the EU until the middle of January in a bid to frighten MPs, including staunch Brexiteers, into accepting it rather than the even worse no deal scenario.
Meanwhile MPs who wish to see another referendum are also biding their time and are almost certain to vote against May’s deal because they can see that the only way in which the UK can limit the damage is to remain in the EU.
Amazingly, and with UK is in real danger of crashing out of the EU without an agreement in place, what are politicians on all sides preparing to do? They are about to embark upon a two week Christmas break.
It would appear that the country is in meltdown, with weak leadership, and both priorities and common sense seem to have been long forgotten.
Ultimately, however, it is the public themselves who have to stand up and be counted for failing to do their homework before voting on such an important issue and allowing this train wreck of a process to take place at all.
DON’T JUMP
Meanwhile, and back at the top of the cliff in our metaphorical scenario, Brexit is confused. The ever-increasing number of the now majority “don’t jump” crowd are urging him/her to walk back to safety.
However, and to the utter disbelief of the others, a selfish and arrogant minority are determined to goad him/her over the edge, possibly in the hope of snatching the valuable possessions off their back and keeping them for themselves after he/she falls to their death.
At the time of writing, it remains to be seen whether common sense will finally prevail and the person in question can be persuaded to return to safety.
In the meantime, I can think of a few other people, and especially those mentioned in this article, who many British citizens would gladly encourage to take the plunge.
Although, in their particular case, I am pretty certain that the desire of the masses would be literal.
Website: http://www.pauldbull.com/
